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tricon-monitor.ai · Confidential
Carlos A. Sanmiguel
Market Monitor
Live
Brent Crude LIVE $96.00 /bbl Model base · updating…
Active Scenario S4 — Ceasefire Collapse / Naval Battle (Modal) Escalation 60% · S4 modal 35% · Stalemate 25% · De-escalation 15% · ⚠ Ceasefire expires Apr 22 — 2 days · No extension text agreed
Key Events
Hormuz Status Closed — Day 3 Closed since Apr 18 · <5% normal transit volume · USS Spruance seized MV Touska Apr 19 · Iran launched drones at US Navy in retaliation · War-risk 1–3%+ · Apr 22 deadline imminent
Iranian Petchem 85% Offline Mahshahr Apr 4 + South Pars Apr 6 · Permanent destruction · 12–18mo recovery minimum
FM Cascade 3 Waves Active · Converters Building Crude terminals 18.2 mb/d blocked · ME FM −11,018 kt/y · Global haircut 22–25 MT/yr · CN naphtha crackers 78–79% (Day 3; Korea 65–67%) · CN ethane ~110% record · Converters est. Apr 27
Nuclear Talks No Framework 20yr vs 5yr freeze gap unbridged · Islamabad Apr 11–12 failed (Vance/Witkoff/Kushner vs FM Araghchi/Speaker Qalibaf) · No second talks — Iran FM Apr 20 · Iran enrichment at military-grade (440 kg 60%-enriched stockpile)
Naphtha NE Asia $930/mt Structural shortage · CN naphtha crackers 78–79% (Day 3; Korea 65–67%) · CN ethane crackers record ~110% · ICIS GPEX +32.7% MoM · Deficit persists through Q3

Tricon · Petrochemical Intelligence

Market Monitor

Pathways Scenario Modeling

This is not a predictive model. It is a multi-pathway analysis of what could happen to petrochemical demand and supply at different crude oil prices, under varying market conditions shaped by geopolitical events, market structure, product fundamentals, and consumer sentiment. Each section maps the scenario space — not a single forecast, but a structured view of the pathways and their relative likelihood under current conditions.

Section 01
Asia Petchem Composite Index
5.7 / 10 TAPI Under Pressure 9-product basket · ME FM + Asian cracker cascade active · BNZ spread +$191/mt (reversal)
Section 02
Product Demand Regime — All Markets
10 under stress 4 Weak · 6 Pressured 15 products · Crude scenario slider · Demand event drivers
Section 03
Product Supply Regime — All Markets
6 tight or disrupted BNZ+SUL Disrupted · 4 Tight 15 products · Supply tightness 0–100 · S&D balance · events
Section 04
Product Intelligence — S&D Deep Dive
15 products AI Analysis Supply & demand curves · cobweb dynamics · cascade risk · AI synthesis
Section 05
Conflict Scenarios
6 pathways S4 35% · S3 25% De-escalation to full Gulf War · Trading · Policy · Consumer behavior
Section 06
Macro Economic Scenarios
R4 dominant regime Stagflation / Supply Shock · 72% 5-regime Markov lattice · Bayesian indicator update · Apr 2026
Section 07
Critical Infrastructure Monitor
6 assets offline Borouge · Petro Rabigh · Hanwha KR Crude + ME FM + Asian crackers all active · −11,018 kt/y haircut · Converters building est. Apr 27
Section 08
Players Intelligence
100 companies tracked 8 triage alerts · 3 critical · ME FM + downstream cascade W2: Borouge FM · Petro Rabigh FM · SABIC miss  |  W3: LYB CEO · Covestro FM
For informational purposes only. Not financial or trading advice. All scores are analytical constructs — they carry inherent uncertainty and should not be the sole basis for any business decision. Crude price is fetched live; all other indicators reflect the model regime and update with the scenario controls.
Carlos A. Sanmiguel © 2026 Tricon · All rights reserved
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